analysis
A new situation as the so-called "crisis" today requires new tools of analysis and new solutions. Repeat the solutions adopted in previous crises will only pave the way for future crisis.
Using the same ways of thinking and acting that have led to the current situation does not seem wise. Something has changed and our thinking would change profoundly.
Peter Senge, Director of the Center for Organizational Learning at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) study on organizational systems concludes with several patterns of behavior of organizations among which I highlight three:
1 - Today's problems are the solutions of yesterday.
2 - Things always get better before worse.
3 - Cause and effect are not easily related either in time or space.
Globalization has strengthened the relationships and systemic effects on the global set that we can consider, more than ever, as an organizational system complex. Based on the above can apply Peter Senge patterns of global economic model.
Since it is true that the solutions always produce a short-term improvement [2] and long-term effects that are produced according to [3] do not relate to the initial solution as a cause because it comes at a time beginning not We have never understood the problems we have come from the so-called solutions of the past [1].
Inject liquidity into the system by buying bonds as the Fed has decided, is to repeat the solution adopted in the period 1992-1994 when the government of Busch decided to inject liquidity into the system by returning large sums to the public. Its effect is happening today but might not relate. This may alleviate the problem of economic growth in the short term, but it sure will impact deferred over time.
There is a fundamental problem in the economic system that produces time-varying effects and nature of which we know little. We apply "solutions" to remedy the effects but the causes appear immersed in the great iceberg of the systemic interrelations. Our brain is not yet ready for it so our understanding of the true causes remain hidden to our understanding.
What hinders our rigorous analysis?
- The duration of political office limits its analysis to the duration of their responsibilities, as well as their ability to historical analysis.
- Excessive concern about immediate results in all sectors and activities of responsibility is the greatest inhibitor of our potential analysis.
- As says the "dialectic" of Hegel's evolution of social learning is based on interpreting the inconsistencies of time to seeking solutions. Solutions to effects or unintended consequences are often targeted in the search for the opposite result, which does not act directly on the causes.
- W. Edwards Deming stated that we should never try solve problems whose causes were random or natural "system", but improving the system to reduce its variability. Doing otherwise leads inevitably to worsen future results.
- Lack of technical and scientific tool for understanding complex situations and decide which utility is especially necessary for managers of business, educational, economic and public.
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